Another great interview on the Thoughtful Money channel. I want to highlight the biggest takeaway I got from this interview, which is relevant to trading psychology.
I paid close attention to this interview because this presented a bull case, unlike so many other guests on this program. It was hard to follow along because he uses many proprietary metrics as his basis, but I think his points are valid, suggesting that we are in an early bull cycle for assets.
Some of the things he mentions like the reverse repo drainage and coming rate cuts he cites as positive for the market, but other YouTubers say those are bearish things. Not sure who is right.
Michael Howell's opinion that the bull cycle is just getting started sounds very similar to Felix Zulauf's stance that a favorable backdrop of policy in the short term should propel asset prices to perform well. The interviews with Darius Dale have similar themes - that the asset party will get crazy right up until just before the economy sours. Something nearly every Adam Taggart interview guest has in common is that they express concern over the long term view because of the unsustainable government debt levels.
This interview was from months ago, but I think it's worth reviewing as the Reverse Repo facility has been coming up as a topic lately because the utilization of that program has been declining in August. Some say that once the facility balance reaches close to zero, that would be an indication that excess liquidity has dried up and that asset prices will begin to decline.
There's an ETF that tracks about everything. Here is a comprehensive list of ETFs that can be useful for tracking or investing in the performance of certain slices and sectors of the stock market.
No Lance Roberts this week, but still a great discussion about what the Fed may be thinking in their sudden change to a dovish stance on interest rates.
Since Wealthion's transition of management, I haven't been impressed with much of the new content. However, I saw in this interview they were giving an explanation of the Fed "dot plot" so I watched to see what they have to say about that. Unfortunately, I didn't get much value out of the rest of the interview and I am skeptical of this guest's sources of information. According to his metrics, the economy is doing great and the American household has a strong balance sheet, but that's not what I see from other sources.
Highlights of this interview:
- Lag effect - signs global recession has begun
- Corporate debt maturity wall
- Reverse repo facility "depletion".
- The impact of recessionary "creative destruction" on the average person. (I've got some opinions to share on this)
I'm did these notes after the FOMC meeting of 12/13/23, which was quite dovish and sparked a market rally. Because of what happened, I think the most interesting part of this interview came around the 1 hour mark when Adam and Lance discuss the Reverse Repo facility being drained and its effect on the credit markets.
I closely watched Michael Pento's previous interviews on Wealthion and other shows like this. He's been bearish since at least 2022 and has had a consistently negative outlook on the US economy - much like a lot these interview guests. In this interview he addresses timing, and brings up many points that I think are still valid as to why a nasty recession followed by stagflation could still happen along with a fall in the stock market from present levels.
Notes on my favorite Saturday morning finance show. Lots of talk on Treasury bonds, $TLT, and Fed liquidity.
I recently started more consistently recording notes from my favorite financial show Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money and posting them here on this blog. Prior to taking these minute-by-minute notes...
On this one I added many of my own differing thoughts in italic. Important topics:
- Quantifiable indicators for why we are in the late stage of the bull cycle.
- As usually, the bear part of this cycle is expected end with the worst pain and flush of asset prices - the capitulation. We are not there yet.
- Which "generals" will be taken down when the market tanks? Looking at past market "generals".
- The US debt situation
The theme today is that retail investors tend to sell low and buy high because they anticipate the momentum of the market to continue indefinitely in the same direction. Many thought the October correction would continue with a steeper bear market and thus sold, missing the recovery. Those long oil had a flat year because they thought 2022's upside momentum would continue even though all the bullish news was already priced in.
Don't get too wrapped up in macro themes. They may not manifest in your investment time horizon, if ever.
Adam also challenges Lance on how quickly the Fed will drop interest rates to stop a recession. Lance thinks the action will be quickly, Adam thinks they will wait for the markets to endure a lot of pain before stepping in with monetary easing.
Notes on Adam Taggart's interview with Jesse Felder, founder of The Felder Report.
Key points:
- Stocks are priced for a perfect scenario
- Investment cycle trending to deglobalization which is inflationary in the short term, but which will ultimately lead to more supplies of goods and disinflation. This sets up a different investment landscape over the next 15 years than the previous 15 years.
- Cost of US debt is spiraling.
An idea I took away from a trading conference several years ago was that it can take a long time for a stock trader to become proficient. A lot of experience is needed to achieve consistent profitability, and also knowing how to adapt to changing market conditions that require a shift in strategy. Here are some reasons it takes 7-8 years to become a master trader.
Today was a really nasty day for $SPY. This was the kind of down day I was waiting for and unsuccessfully tried to short back in August. I even had a $SPY 439 put that expired LAST Friday. I had the right idea, but was too early. This blog post is about me coming to the realization that swing trading while having a full time job just doesn't work.
Welcome to the relaunched Greenspud Trades! This blog is my "thinking out loud" journal with my thoughts on the stock market, economy, and individual trades.
I'm going to be reviewing some of my old posts to reflect on how much I've improved as a trader over the last 10 years. This is a retrospective of a post I made in 2014 regarding a trade in a stock called Rewalk Robotics $RWLK.
