On this one I added many of my own differing thoughts in italic. Important topics:
- Quantifiable indicators for why we are in the late stage of the bull cycle.
- As usually, the bear part of this cycle is expected end with the worst pain and flush of asset prices - the capitulation. We are not there yet.
- Which "generals" will be taken down when the market tanks? Looking at past market "generals".
- The US debt situation
The theme today is that retail investors tend to sell low and buy high because they anticipate the momentum of the market to continue indefinitely in the same direction. Many thought the October correction would continue with a steeper bear market and thus sold, missing the recovery. Those long oil had a flat year because they thought 2022's upside momentum would continue even though all the bullish news was already priced in.
Don't get too wrapped up in macro themes. They may not manifest in your investment time horizon, if ever.
Adam also challenges Lance on how quickly the Fed will drop interest rates to stop a recession. Lance thinks the action will be quickly, Adam thinks they will wait for the markets to endure a lot of pain before stepping in with monetary easing.
Notes on Adam Taggart's interview with Jesse Felder, founder of The Felder Report.
Key points:
- Stocks are priced for a perfect scenario
- Investment cycle trending to deglobalization which is inflationary in the short term, but which will ultimately lead to more supplies of goods and disinflation. This sets up a different investment landscape over the next 15 years than the previous 15 years.
- Cost of US debt is spiraling.
An idea I took away from a trading conference several years ago was that it can take a long time for a stock trader to become proficient. A lot of experience is needed to achieve consistent profitability, and also knowing how to adapt to changing market conditions that require a shift in strategy. Here are some reasons it takes 7-8 years to become a master trader.
Today was a really nasty day for $SPY. This was the kind of down day I was waiting for and unsuccessfully tried to short back in August. I even had a $SPY 439 put that expired LAST Friday. I had the right idea, but was too early. This blog post is about me coming to the realization that swing trading while having a full time job just doesn't work.
Welcome to the relaunched Greenspud Trades! This blog is my "thinking out loud" journal with my thoughts on the stock market, economy, and individual trades.
I'm going to be reviewing some of my old posts to reflect on how much I've improved as a trader over the last 10 years. This is a retrospective of a post I made in 2014 regarding a trade in a stock called Rewalk Robotics $RWLK.
